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Creators/Authors contains: "Speagle, Joshua"

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  1. We present MArk-dependently THinned POint Process (Mathpop), a novel method to infer the globular cluster (GC) counts in ultra-diffuse galaxies (UDGs) and low-surface brightness galaxies (LSBGs). Many known UDGs have a surprisingly high ratio of GC number to surface brightness. However, standard methods to infer GC counts in UDGs face various challenges, such as photometric measurement uncertainties, GC membership uncertainties, and assumptions about the GC luminosity functions (GCLFs). Mathpop tackles these challenges using the mark-dependent thinned point process, enabling joint inference of the spatial and magnitude distributions of GCs. In doing so, Mathpop allows us to infer and quantify the uncertainties in both GC counts and GCLFs with minimal assumptions. As a precursor to Mathpop, we also address the data uncertainties coming from the selection process of GC candidates: we obtain probabilistic GC candidates instead of the traditional binary classification based on the color–magnitude diagram. We apply Mathpop to 40 LSBGs in the Perseus cluster using GC catalogs from a Hubble Space Telescope imaging program. We then compare our results to those from an independent study using the standard method. We further calibrate and validate our approach through extensive simulations. Our approach reveals two LSBGs having GCLF turnover points much brighter than the canonical value with Bayes’ factor being ∼4.5 and ∼2.5, respectively. An additional crude maximum-likelihood estimation and simulation study show that their GCLF TO points are approximately 0.9 mag and 1.1 mag brighter than the canonical value, with p-values of ∼10^−8 and ∼10^−5, respectively. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available May 7, 2026
  2. High-resolution 3D maps of interstellar dust are critical for probing the underlying physics shaping the structure of the interstellar medium, and for foreground correction of astrophysical observations affected by dust. We aim to construct a new 3D map of the spatial distribution of interstellar dust extinction out to a distance of kpc from the Sun. We leveraged distance and extinction estimates to 54 million nearby stars derived from the Gaia BP/RP spectra. Using the stellar distance and extinction information, we inferred the spatial distribution of dust extinction. We modeled the logarithmic dust extinction with a Gaussian process in a spherical coordinate system via iterative charted refinement and a correlation kernel inferred in previous work. In total, our posterior has over 661 million degrees of freedom. We probed the posterior distribution using the variational inference method MGVI. Our 3D dust map has an angular resolution of up to $ $ ($$N_ side =256$$), and we achieve parsec-scale distance resolution, sampling the dust in $516$ logarithmically spaced distance bins spanning pc . We generated 12 samples from the variational posterior of the 3D dust distribution and release the samples alongside the mean 3D dust map and its corresponding uncertainty. Our map resolves the internal structure of hundreds of molecular clouds in the solar neighborhood and will be broadly useful for studies of star formation, Galactic structure, and young stellar populations. It is available for download in a variety of coordinate systems online and can also be queried via the publicly available dustmaps Python package. 
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  3. ABSTRACT We present the first detailed chemical-abundance analysis of stars from the dwarf-galaxy stellar stream Wukong/LMS-1 covering a wide metallicity range ($$-3.5 \lt \rm [Fe/H] \lesssim -1.3$$). We find abundance patterns that are effectively indistinguishable from the bulk of Indus and Jhelum, a pair of smaller stellar streams proposed to be dynamically associated with Wukong/LMS-1. We confirmed a carbon-enhanced metal-poor star ($$\rm [C/Fe] \gt +0.7$$ and $$\rm [Fe/H] \sim -2.9$$) in Wukong/LMS-1 with strong enhancements in Sr, Y, and Zr, which is peculiar given its solar-level [Ba/Fe]. Wukong/LMS-1 stars have high abundances of α elements up to $$\rm [Fe/H] \gtrsim -2$$, which is expected for relatively massive dwarfs. Towards the high-metallicity end, Wukong/LMS-1 becomes α-poor, revealing that it probably experienced fairly standard chemical evolution. We identified a pair of N- and Na-rich stars in Wukong/LMS-1, reminiscent of multiple stellar populations in globular clusters. This indicates that this dwarf galaxy contained at least one globular cluster that was completely disrupted in addition to two intact ones previously known to be associated with Wukong/LMS-1, which is possibly connected to similar evidence found in Indus. From these ≥3 globular clusters, we estimate the total mass of Wukong/LMS-1 to be $${\approx }10^{10} \, \mathrm{M}_\odot$$, representing ∼1 per cent of the present-day Milky Way. Finally, the [Eu/Mg] ratio in Wukong/LMS-1 continuously increases with metallicity, making this the first example of a dwarf galaxy where the production of r-process elements is clearly dominated by delayed sources, presumably neutron-star mergers. 
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  4. ABSTRACT We model the stellar abundances and ages of two disrupted dwarf galaxies in the Milky Way stellar halo: Gaia-Sausage Enceladus (GSE) and Wukong/LMS-1. Using a statistically robust likelihood function, we fit one-zone models of galactic chemical evolution with exponential infall histories to both systems, deriving e-folding time-scales of τin = 1.01 ± 0.13 Gyr for GSE and $$\tau _\text{in} = 3.08^{+3.19}_{-1.16}$$ Gyr for Wukong/LMS-1. GSE formed stars for $$\tau _\text{tot} = 5.40^{+0.32}_{-0.31}$$ Gyr, sustaining star formation for ∼1.5–2 Gyr after its first infall into the Milky Way ∼10 Gyr ago. Our fit suggests that star formation lasted for $$\tau _\text{tot} = 3.36^{+0.55}_{-0.47}$$ Gyr in Wukong/LMS-1, though our sample does not contain any age measurements. The differences in evolutionary parameters between the two are qualitatively consistent with trends with stellar mass M⋆ predicted by simulations and semi-analytic models of galaxy formation. Our inferred values of the outflow mass-loading factor reasonably match $$\eta \propto M_\star ^{-1/3}$$ as predicted by galactic wind models. Our fitting method is based only on Poisson sampling from an evolutionary track and requires no binning of the data. We demonstrate its accuracy by testing against mock data, showing that it accurately recovers the input model across a broad range of sample sizes (20 ≤ N ≤ 2000) and measurement uncertainties (0.01 ≤ σ[α/Fe], σ[Fe/H] ≤ 0.5; $$0.02 \le \sigma _{\log _{10}(\text{age})} \le 1$$). Due to the generic nature of our derivation, this likelihood function should be applicable to one-zone models of any parametrization and easily extensible to other astrophysical models which predict tracks in some observed space. 
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  5. Abstract Modern Galactic surveys have revealed an ancient merger that dominates the stellar halo of our galaxy (Gaia–Sausage–Enceladus, GSE). Using chemical abundances and kinematics from the H3 Survey, we identify 5559 halo stars from this merger in the radial range r Gal = 6–60kpc. We forward model the full selection function of H3 to infer the density profile of this accreted component of the stellar halo. We consider a general ellipsoid with principal axes allowed to rotate with respect to the galactocentric axes, coupled with a multiply broken power law. The best-fit model is a triaxial ellipsoid (axes ratios 10:8:7) tilted 25° above the Galactic plane toward the Sun and a doubly broken power law with breaking radii at 12 kpc and 28 kpc. The doubly broken power law resolves a long-standing dichotomy in literature values of the halo breaking radius, being at either ∼15 kpc or ∼30 kpc assuming a singly broken power law. N -body simulations suggest that the breaking radii are connected to apocenter pile-ups of stellar orbits, and so the observed double-break provides new insight into the initial conditions and evolution of the GSE merger. Furthermore, the tilt and triaxiality of the stellar halo could imply that a fraction of the underlying dark matter halo is also tilted and triaxial. This has important implications for dynamical mass modeling of the galaxy as well as direct dark matter detection experiments. 
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  6. Abstract Recent observations of the stellar halo have uncovered the debris of an ancient merger, Gaia–Sausage–Enceladus (GSE), estimated to have occurred ≳8 Gyr ago. Follow-up studies have associated GSE with a large-scale tilt in the stellar halo that links two well-known stellar overdensities in diagonally opposing octants of the Galaxy (the Hercules–Aquila Cloud and Virgo Overdensity; HAC and VOD). In this paper, we study the plausibility of such unmixed merger debris persisting over several gigayears in the Galactic halo. We employ the simulated stellar halo from Naidu et al., which reproduces several key properties of the merger remnant, including the large-scale tilt. By integrating the orbits of these simulated stellar halo particles, we show that adoption of a spherical halo potential results in rapid phase mixing of the asymmetry. However, adopting a tilted halo potential preserves the initial asymmetry in the stellar halo for many gigayears. The asymmetry is preserved even when a realistic growing disk is added to the potential. These results suggest that HAC and VOD are long-lived structures that are associated with GSE and that the dark matter halo of the Galaxy is tilted with respect to the disk and aligned in the direction of HAC–VOD. Such halo–disk misalignment is common in modern cosmological simulations. Lastly, we study the relationship between the local and global stellar halo in light of a tilted global halo comprised of highly radial orbits. We find that the local halo offers a dynamically biased view of the global halo due to its displacement from the Galactic center. 
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  7. For decades we have known that the Sun lies within the Local Bubble, a cavity of low-density, high-temperature plasma surrounded by a shell of cold, neutral gas and dust. However, the precise shape and extent of this shell, the impetus and timescale for its formation, and its relationship to nearby star formation have remained uncertain, largely due to low-resolution models of the local interstellar medium. Leveraging new spatial and dynamical constraints from the Gaia space mission, here we report an analysis of the 3D positions, shapes, and motions of dense gas and young stars within 200 pc of the Sun. We find that nearly all the star-forming complexes in the solar vicinity lie on the surface of the Local Bubble and that their young stars show outward expansion mainly perpendicular to the bubble's surface. Tracebacks of these young stars' motions support a scenario where the origin of the Local Bubble was a burst of stellar birth and then death (supernovae) taking place near the bubble's center beginning 14 Myr ago. The expansion of the Local Bubble created by the supernovae swept up the ambient interstellar medium into an extended shell that has now fragmented and collapsed into the most prominent nearby molecular clouds, in turn providing robust observational support for the theory of supernova-driven star formation. 
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  8. Abstract Several lines of evidence suggest that the Milky Way underwent a major merger at z ∼ 2 with the Gaia-Sausage-Enceladus (GSE) galaxy. Here we use H3 Survey data to argue that GSE entered the Galaxy on a retrograde orbit based on a population of highly retrograde stars with chemistry similar to the largely radial GSE debris. We present the first tailored N -body simulations of the merger. From a grid of ≈500 simulations we find that a GSE with M ⋆ = 5 × 10 8 M ⊙ , M DM = 2 × 10 11 M ⊙ best matches the H3 data. This simulation shows that the retrograde stars are stripped from GSE’s outer disk early in the merger. Despite being selected purely on angular momenta and radial distributions, this simulation reproduces and explains the following phenomena: (i) the triaxial shape of the inner halo, whose major axis is at ≈35° to the plane and connects GSE’s apocenters; (ii) the Hercules-Aquila Cloud and the Virgo Overdensity, which arise due to apocenter pileup; and (iii) the 2 Gyr lag between the quenching of GSE and the truncation of the age distribution of the in situ halo, which tracks the lag between the first and final GSE pericenters. We make the following predictions: (i) the inner halo has a “double-break” density profile with breaks at both ≈15–18 kpc and 30 kpc, coincident with the GSE apocenters; and (ii) the outer halo has retrograde streams awaiting discovery at >30 kpc that contain ≈10% of GSE’s stars. The retrograde (radial) GSE debris originates from its outer (inner) disk—exploiting this trend, we reconstruct the stellar metallicity gradient of GSE (−0.04 ± 0.01 dex r 50 − 1 ). These simulations imply that GSE delivered ≈20% of the Milky Way’s present-day dark matter and ≈50% of its stellar halo. 
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  9. Abstract The astrophysical origins of r -process elements remain elusive. Neutron star mergers (NSMs) and special classes of core-collapse supernovae (rCCSNe) are leading candidates. Due to these channels’ distinct characteristic timescales (rCCSNe: prompt, NSMs: delayed), measuring r -process enrichment in galaxies of similar mass but differing star formation durations might prove informative. Two recently discovered disrupted dwarfs in the Milky Way’s stellar halo, Kraken and Gaia-Sausage Enceladus (GSE), afford precisely this opportunity: Both have M ⋆ ≈ 10 8 M ⊙ but differing star formation durations of ≈2 Gyr and ≈3.6 Gyr. Here we present R ≈ 50,000 Magellan/MIKE spectroscopy for 31 stars from these systems, detecting the r -process element Eu in all stars. Stars from both systems have similar [Mg/H] ≈ −1, but Kraken has a median [Eu/Mg] ≈ −0.1 while GSE has an elevated [Eu/Mg] ≈ 0.2. With simple models, we argue NSM enrichment must be delayed by 500–1000 Myr to produce this difference. rCCSNe must also contribute, especially at early epochs, otherwise stars formed during the delay period would be Eu free. In this picture, rCCSNe account for ≈50% of the Eu in Kraken, ≈25% in GSE, and ≈15% in dwarfs with extended star formation durations like Sagittarius. The inferred delay time for NSM enrichment is 10×–100× longer than merger delay times from stellar population synthesis—this is not necessarily surprising because the enrichment delay includes time taken for NSM ejecta to be incorporated into subsequent generations of stars. For example, this may be due to natal kicks that result in r -enriched material deposited far from star-forming gas, which then takes ≈10 8 –10 9 yr to cool in these galaxies. 
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  10. ABSTRACT Due to the different environments in the Milky Way’s disc and halo, comparing wide binaries in the disc and halo is key to understanding wide binary formation and evolution. By using Gaia Early Data Release 3, we search for resolved wide binary companions in the H3 survey, a spectroscopic survey that has compiled ∼150 000 spectra for thick-disc and halo stars to date. We identify 800 high-confidence (a contamination rate of 4 per cent) wide binaries and two resolved triples, with binary separations mostly between 103 and 105 au and a lowest [Fe/H] of −2.7. Based on their Galactic kinematics, 33 of them are halo wide binaries, and most of those are associated with the accreted Gaia-Sausage-Enceladus galaxy. The wide binary fraction in the thick disc decreases toward the low metallicity end, consistent with the previous findings for the thin disc. Our key finding is that the halo wide binary fraction is consistent with the thick-disc stars at a fixed [Fe/H]. There is no significant dependence of the wide binary fraction on the α-captured abundance. Therefore, the wide binary fraction is mainly determined by the iron abundance, not their disc or halo origin nor the α-captured abundance. Our results suggest that the formation environments play a major role for the wide binary fraction, instead of other processes like radial migration that only apply to disc stars. 
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